"Certainly, [US Representative Todd Akin, R-MO] seems as safe as any Republican can be in an otherwise bleak atmosphere for the GOP," writes Deirdre Shesgreen in today's St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "The 2nd Congressional District includes the high-income, reliably Republican suburbs .... Akin won the seat in 2000, squeaking through a five-way GOP primary by 56 votes and then winning easily in the general election. He has coasted to re-election ever since."

Appearances can be deceiving. Todd Akin's seat isn't nearly as "safe" at it looks.

Crossposted from Show Me Progress.

As I approached the press entrance to the Truman Memorial Building I stopped to take a photo of the media trucks. This very nice lady stopped and asked me, "Are you with the Kansas City Star?" I replied that I was not, I was a blogger. She then asked me, "Would you like to take my picture with my husband he's just around the corner?" I thought, "Why not?" and told her I would. As we walked back to the line of people around the corner I asked her if she had ever been to an event like this before. She replied, "No, never before. This is historic." We found her husband in line and I took this photo. They reminded me of my parents.

I waited my turn to go through security at the press entrance. The uniformed officer had me take out and start up all of my electronic equipment, including my camera. As he peered through the viewfinder he took this photo. He quipped to me, "If you publish this I should get credit." He's got it.

This is disappointing and shouldn't be happening

I just met Rep. John "Foleygate enabler" Shimkus' sister this evening and you'll never guess where ....

The Netroots in Missouri has taken great issue with many of Sen Claire McCaskill's higher profile votes since we dumped money, time and effort into finally getting a Democratic Senator elected from Missouri.

Given her seeming intransience on fighting the FISA bill, is it any wonder some of us want to know more about her voting record on all the issues?

I'm using a broad database provided by the Washington Post but would love to see a site that has more detailed analysis.

I just wanted to express my joy at an incident that just happened.  I live in a small, relatively isolated small town in NE Missouri, ninety miles from any city of any size (we are 17,000 here and by far the largest in this part of the state, until you get to the Mississippi, and Hannibal is only slightly larger than we are).  I do a lot of my shopping on the internet (books, electronics, etc.), and I often don't even think of shopping locally for such things because I have been so often disappointed.  But I thought about it today, and I am glad.  I heard an interview with an author of a book about climbing Everest (Michael Kodas; the book is High Crimes: The Fate of Everest in an Age of Greed) and I wanted to read it.  Instead of automatically going for Amazon, I thought I would check the local Hastings, and they had it on the shelf so I will go in and pick it up this afternoon.  A good experience like that will encourage me to think about them next time I need a book.

This got me to thinking about other things I can buy locally (not necessarily produced locally, but at least not mail-ordered).  Even in a small town, I can buy...

I sure hope McCain isn't paying his staff much money cause man do they stink at their job.  Granted they have a tough job of making McCain look young, hip, smart, energetic, enthusiastic, smart, oops said that one already...

This camp can’t go a single day without falling on their face, flip-flopping on an issue, or just saying something so stupid it hurts to read.

cross posted on my site OurHispanicVoices.com

With 35 Senate seats being contested this year (33 plus 2 special elections), Democrats have only 4 female candidates: Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Kay Hagan (NC), Vivian Figures (AL) and incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA). That's a shamefully low number. The Republicans only have 2 incumbents, Elizabeth Dole (NC) and Susan Collins (ME), and one sole challenger, Christine O'Donnell (DE).

Overall, this is not a great year for women in the U.S. Senate. The overall outcome will be somewhere between minus 2 and plus 4 female Senators. The most likely outcome is somewhere between minus 1 and plus 1.

So, let's look ahead to 2010. Specifically, to which Democratic female politicians might or should run for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

Another levee just broke in Lincoln County, Missouri. Updates can be found on the St. Louis Post-Dispatch website.

LINCOLN COUNTY, Mo. -- Floodwaters have breached another Lincoln County levee this afternoon.

The latest breach happened about 1:30 p.m. directly northeast of Winfield at the end of Highway M. The breach is about 40 feet wide and water is now flowing toward Winfield's secondary levee where sandbagging efforts are continuing.

I just saw a local news report (St. Louis TV) about the struggles that the small Missouri towns of Canton & Old Madrid were having with sandbagging their levees. They were in desparate need of volunteers, trucks (the cities 2 dump trucks broke down today) 7 sand. After I finished watching the newscast, I went to check my email ...

BLOG LIVE WITH PROGRESSIVE CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE BYRON DELEAR

DONOR DRIVE TO HELP UNSEAT BUSH REPUB. PRO-WAR TODD AKIN

POWER FROM THE PEOPLE FUELS THIS EXCITING CAMPAIGN... COME ABOARD!

As I've mentioned, my brother is a political strategist. He promised to send me a message to the Obama community since he no longer posts at DKos, but it took him pretty much all weekend to do.

See, he has always been a huge admirer of Tim Russert, so he's a little bit down this weekend, but late tonight, I finally got his 10 county analysis that he promised.

So here it is, a simple message from my brother...win these 10 counties and Obama is the next President of the United States.

With the Presidential race for the nomination finally resolved, it is time to take a deep breath and take a look at the Congress our would-be Presidential Candidate will be working with.  The Democrats have the majority in the House and are likely to keep it.  However, with so many freshman Democrats, the Republicans are aiming to get back some of what they lost in 2006.  Still, the Republicans are the ones who likely will lose seats.  The NRCC has already told GOP candidates they won’t get as much support as they did in 2006.  Over 25 GOP seats are open seats, and another GOP rep seems to retire every couple weeks.  Far fewer Democratic seats are open.  The GOP already lost 3 seats so far this year alone.  In fact, if you account for the three seats Republicans already lost, the Democratic list would be 24 instead of 27.

Below is an overview of some key seats of contention in 2008.  The Democrats have 27 seats that may be vulnerable (including the three seats they picked up in 2008), with 15 seats that are clearly vulnerable, while the Republicans appear to have 42 seats that may be vulnerable, with 29 that are clearly vulnerable.  

Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.

By aimeeinkc

22 Weeks

                     
                         3480 Hours
                   

In the 1800s immigrants from Germany and other mid-European countries flocked to cities like Cincinnatti, Detroit, Milwaukee and St. Louis.  They built many things including built great breweries, like Blatz, Miller, Schlitz, Pabst, Falstaff and a thousand lesser ones.  The greatest brewery of them all was Anheuser-Busch in St. Louis.  I went to high school just 10 blocks from the 100 square block Busch brewery complex in St. Louis.  If the breeze was just right, the smell of hops would blow in and engulf our classroom.  It was a reassuring smell.  It meant union jobs at solid middle class wages with great benefits that had been won thanks to strong unions and a paternalistic management.  Anheuser-Busch, then & now, was the cornerstone of St. Louis.  

Within the past month I put forth 19 polls with 15 candidates each to figure out who you guys want in an Obama cabinet. With voting in all rounds now over I compiled five different cabinets and they were all up for a vote this week.

Who got included in the final cabinets: the top three in each poll automatically made it into these final cabinet polls, in some cases also the 4th and 5th. However, to make sure that the cabinets are as diverse as possible I gave some candidates who didn't have enough votes a wildcard.

Each day this week you can rate a cabinet. Today, you can rate a possible Obama/Webb cabinet on a scale from 1 (hate it) to 10 (love it). At the end I will post the results and the cabinet with the highest average wins.

Rasmussen. 6/3. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/6 results)

That's a seven-point swing as people decide that perhaps McCain deserves more scrutiny. And this number is 16-points better than Obama's nadir in March in the midst of the Wright freak-out. In a 3/24 poll, McCain led Obama 53-38.

This poll tracks closely with the latest Missouri SUSA poll, in which Obama led McCain 45-43.

Let's dwell into the crosstabs of this latest Ras poll:

That's a 7-point swing against McCain for women, while Obama is already bringing Democrats home (as McCain brings Republicans home as well). The biggest difference? Look at that swing with independents -- 17 points.

Obama will finish bringing Democrats home, to the 90-percent range. If he can hold to that kind of margin with independents, Missouri will go Blue this November. And I have to say, while long skeptical, I'm starting to become a believer that the Show Me state will deliver.

Obama will be the Democratic nominee. It almost feels surreal, though, that after the long road of the last sixteen months the improbable outcome of an Obama nomination over the inevitable nomination of Hillary Clinton is now just hours away.

Which is why I'm floored to have been offered an Obama Organizing Fellowship and to know that in two weeks I will be working for Barack Obama in the bellwether state of Missouri.

Follow this fellow over the jump for a few thoughts on this exciting moment.