Playing The Troop Numbers Game

Everyone is talking about the number of troops in Iraq. But so far, few are accounting for contractors in the numbers.

Take the word "contractor" and replace it with the word "troop" because that's what many of the contractors are doing in Iraq: the jobs once held by troops. Many civilian contractors are themselves former military.

The cook is a civilian from Bosnia, the mechanic is a civilian from the Phillipines and a fresh American troop can now hold a gun. This shift lowers the numbers of deployed troops so that the low "troop" numbers are more palatable to Americans at home.

So let's look at some hard data that includes the numbers of contractors as well as troops in Iraq. Join me below the fold to look at how these numbers have changed since March 2003.

This is an update of an earlier commentary I posted at ePluribus Media on  June 23, 2006. Making the War in Iraq Palatable at Home

Troop Numbers

For the purposes of this review, I am relying on data from the Brookings Institute, The Iraq Index. The most recent Iraq Index report is December 14, 2006. (PDF) see page 20 - Troops US & Coalition

Contractor Numbers

The May 30, 2006 Iraq Index Report included data on contractors on page 15.  

May 2003

150,000 US troops
23,000 coalition troops
173,000 troops
11,000 contractors
184,000 personnel

May 2004

138,000 US troops
24,000 coalition troops
162,000 troops
18,000 contractors
180,000 personnel

May 2005

138,000 US troops
23,000 coalition troops
161,000 troops
30,000 contractors as of Dec 2004
191,000 personnel

In June 2005, PBS estimated 110,000-140,000 contractors in Iraq with an additional 15,000 Iraqis under contract to guard the oil infrastructure. Of the contractors, 50,000 were known to be employed by KBR who administers the LOGCAPIII contract for the US Army. But actual numbers of contractors based on an extensive survey would not be reported by CENTCOM until a year and a half later in December 2006.

June 2006

132,000 US troops (down 6,000 since Jan)
20,000 coalition troops
152,000 troops
50,000 contractors (employed by KBR, see ref above)
202,000 personnel

The Washington Post reported data from a survey for CENTCOM on the number of contractors in Iraq as of summer 2006. The reported number does NOT include subcontractors.

December 2006

140,000 US troops
18,000 coalition troops
158,000 troops (decrease of 3,200 since October)
100,000 contractors*
258,000 personnel

CENTCOM'S reporting of 100,000 contractors is most likely a low number given that subcontractors have not been included.

The big question: what's the real number of personnel in Iraq?

References:

The Iraq Index, Michael E. O'Hanlon and Nina Kamp, December 14, 2006, Brookings Institute

The Iraq Index, Michael E. O'Hanlon and Nina Kamp, May 30, 2006, Brookings Institute

*Renae Merle, Census Counts 100,000 Contractors in Iraq
Civilian Number, Duties Are Issues, Washington Post, Tuesday, December 5, 2006; Page D01

Ann Scott Tyson, Rumsfeld Called for Change in War Plan, Washington Post, Sunday, December 3, 2006; Page A01

Coalition troop numbers from Iraq Weekly Status Report, Department of State. Accessed at http://www.state.gov/...